Atlantic Flyway goose forecast ( somewhat lengthy )

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AP Geese

Early reports of spring habitat conditions from our Inuit friends on the Ungava Peninsula were characterized by winter temperatures, extensive snow and ice covered lakes and rivers......all unfavorable conditions for nesting Atlantic Population Canada geese. Peter May who lives in Kuujjuaq on Ungava Bay indicated that Spring 2007 was shaping up to be the latest he has ever observed. Conditions hundreds of miles to the west along the northeastern coast of Hudson Bay appeared from satellite imagery to be worse. Waterfowl managers feared that a production "bust" (e.g., no goslings produced this year) for AP geese was eminent. However, field reports from ground nest survey crews at Ungava Bay indicate that production will be poor but not as bad as early reports were suggesting. Nest searches during June 2007 showed that many geese did not nest as ground crews were able to locate only about half as many nests as in 2007 at six key nesting areas surveyed. The average clutch size in nests found this year were lower (3.6 eggs/nest) than the mean clutch size for all areas in 2006 (3.99 egg/ nest).

Clutch size decreases whenever nest initiation is delayed by snow cover and the absence of open water across the tundra landscape. In a late spring like 2007, geese use up their stored fat reserves for egg laying to surviving during the cold, winter-like weather as they wait for the spring thaw.

The nest survey ground crews weigh and measure each egg found in goose nests. This information is used to calculate when the hatch will occur.

Knowing the timing of the hatch is useful to managers in schedule the timing of the spring breeding pair survey and pre-hunting season banding of flightless geese in early August. This year's hatch will occur around July 10 or approximately 20 days later than the 2006 hatch (early spring).

While preparing this update, the annual spring breeding pair survey is nearing completion. The aerial survey crew has completed all the survey transects along the Hudson Bay coast. There is lots of ice on Hudson Bay and both Inuit settlements at Povurnituq and Inukjuak are both still

frozen in. But, large numbers of geese were observed on the Hudson Bay

coast. With about 2 days of survey flights to be completed, the preliminary results suggest that the number of breeding AP geese will show a healthy increase over the 160,400 pairs counted on the 2006 survey. The percentage of single geese observed (e.g., ganders tending to an incubating females) by the survey crew has been about 42% thus far......another strong indication that it is a poor nesting season.

The stronger the nesting effort the higher percentage of single geese observed (males on territory). What the survey crew has noted thus far seems very comparable to other poor production years in 2000, 2002, and 2004.

In summary, the nesting season for AP Canada geese is a poor one, but the number of breeding pairs counted this year will be higher than 2006.

Based upon what we know now, the fall flight of AP Canada geese from northern Quebec will be large but smaller than the 2006 fall population and will be composed of mostly adult geese. Hunters will see plenty of migrant Canada geese this fall on the Delmarva Peninsula but those older birds will be tougher to decoy to within gun range."



Here are the numbers (July 3, 2007)

The survey to estimate the number of breeding pairs of Canada geese on the Ungava Peninsula of northern Quebec was conducted June 21-27, 2007.

Spring temperatures in 2007 were below normal and coastal areas remained snow-covered until early June. At the time of the survey, ice cover remained on most lakes and ponds, particularly along the Hudson Bay coast. Ice cover was less extensive along the coast of Ungava Bay.

The estimated number of breeding pairs was 195,709 (SE = 16,621) compared to 160,020 (SE = 16,419) in 2006. The proportion of indicated pairs observed as single geese (42%) was consistent with a poor nesting effort.